Composite Cycles Model on New Home Sales indicates possible end for U.S. recession as early as summer 2024 New Home Sales – also known as “New Residental Sales” – is an economic indicator that measures sales of newly built homes. New home sales data is one of the best leading indicators of the housing market.… Continue reading Slow down in housing market: Can it predict the end of the next U.S. recession?
A a metric based on a calculation of Net Liquidity suggests that the SPX is now over 300 Points “Over Valued” which represents the largest deviation seen at any time over the last two years. So, how to we come to this assessment and how useful has this been in recent times? FED followers have… Continue reading Can We Use Net Liquidity to Predict The Market?
The following chart shows the 10 year US treasury minus the 1 year treasury spread curve in blue. The current yield curve is negative which results in an inverted yield curve. Attention is keenly focused on the yield curve slope as sustained inversions in past decades have been followed by economic downturns over the ensuing… Continue reading Treasury yield curve inversion and cycle model signal trouble for stock markets
In short, NO! We’ve seen US Stock Indices rally strongly higher off the Mid June 2022 lows in tandem with US Bonds. The conditions were right for this rally, with liquidity being supportive along with the shorter time frame cycles projections we have been posting in the TPA Service suggesting a move up into early… Continue reading Have Stocks & Bond Markets Seen The Lows for This Year?
US Stock Indices have seen unprecedented gains since the lows back in March 2020. The moves down into those lows from the highs barely one month earlier in February 2020 were the fastest on record yet just over one year later and against a back drop of a global pandemic the US Markets are seeing… Continue reading Can US Stock Indices Still Go Higher?
With the Main US Indices have been effectively range bound since early to mid June we are looking for the next significant directional move. Seasonally August has historically seen pullbacks in the S&P500 (See Chart). Will this unusually volatile year prove to be different? There are a good number of potential catalysts over coming days.… Continue reading Where Next For US Markets?
Following up on the article posted back on 4th August (Everyone’s Zooming These Days) I flagged Zoom as a potential buy at $268 with an initial target of $399 we have now seen this stock progress to the upside and slightly exceed that initial target. At the time we were looking for a bullish momentum… Continue reading ZOOM (ZM) Trade Follow Up
This article is taking a ‘Bigger Picture” perspective on where we all stand and the direction in which we are heading. The decade of the 2020’s is one where the institutional and social cycles converge, ending in the same 10 year period. It is the period of the “Storm Before The Calm” , a period… Continue reading The Eye Of the Storm Change Can Be Painful
Since early July we have seen every pullback in the US Markets hold above support and then push higher resulting in the upward chop to new highs week after week. The liquidity landscape has been hugely supportive during this period leaving Primary Dealers flush and markets buoyed. Taking stock and looking forward over the coming… Continue reading Mind The (Liquidity) GAP
US Markets have been on a tear to the upside since the dramatic drop into the lows seen earlier this year. The technology heavy Nasdaq has exceeded its all time high from February 2020, The S&P 500 is now approaching that same high while the Dow Jones Industrial Average & Russell 2000 Small Cap Index… Continue reading Are US Markets About to Pullback?
